Concord resident Cole Peurifoy, 5, holds Woolly Worm Jack, this year’s winter weather predictor. According to Jack’s stripes, snow is expected through the holidays into late January; severe cold and snow is expected at the end of winter.
Weather Guru Ray Russell, Woolly Worm Jack Predict Winter Weather
Story by Anne Baker
Concord resident Cole Peurifoy, 5, holds Woolly Worm Jack, this year’s winter weather predictor. According to Jack’s stripes, snow is expected through the holidays into late January; severe cold and snow is expected at the end of winter.
It’s something many High Country residents will think at least once during the coming winter: what kind of snowman will we see on Ray Russell’s site, www.raysweather.com? Russell, the founder of the site, transformed a hobby into something about 250,000 people read per month for their weather news—and now, his 10th Winter Fearless Forecast has been released, prepping the public for a winter that many are hoping will not be as harsh as last year.
As famous as Russell’s forecast is, however, he has a competitor: Woolly Worm Jack, the winner of the races at the Woolly Worm Festival held this month in Banner Elk.
How do the two forecasts compare? While both predict snow and temperatures common to winter, there are key differences.
The Fearless Forecast
Raysweather.com predicts less-than-normal snow and overall temperatures about 1 degree above normal.The areas on the western upslope of the Appalachians—those right along the Tennessee and Virginia state line—may have relatively more snow than the rest of the Southern Appalachians. This is because more of the snow is expected to come from Northwest flow events, which is different than last year, when most of the snow came from Gulf and Nor’Easter lows.
Boone is expected to see 32 inches of snow and ice; Banner Elk, 38 inches; and Beech Mountain, 75 inches.
To put that into perspective, last year, Boone saw 83.6 inches of snow and ice, and Beech Mountain saw 134.3 inches, according to www.raysweather.com. “The first thing that anybody looks at that’s doing seasonal forecasting is the ocean temperature,” Russell said. “The oceans are the great storehouses for heat and energy on the planet.”
This involves analyzing the state of El Niño and La Niña—and strong La Niña conditions exist now and are said to hold through the winter, which are characterized in the Southern Appalachians by drier-than-normal weather with temperatures slightly above normal.
“Then the thing that’s harder is looking into the Atlantic,” he said. “It’s harder because that changes more frequently than the Pacific and is less predictable long term in that regard. It’s a lot of looking at patterns and looking at how the weather tends to behave, especially in oceans.”
Russell also looks at polar ice conditions and current weather trends.
How confident is Russell with his forecast?
“In terms of less-than-normal snow and warmer temperatures, we have higher-than-normal confidence,” Russell said. “In terms of what side of normal it’s going to be on, we’re highly confident in that.”
The Fearless Forecast is independent of other seasonal forecasts such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and international forecast services, but is in general agreement with them, he said.
To read the entire forecast, click to www.booneweather.com/Fearless+Forecast.
The Woolly Worm
Woolly Worm Jack, trained by 5-year-old Cole Peurifoy of Concord, begins his predictions starting with the winter solstice on Tuesday, December 21. Based on the width and order of the caterpillar’s black and brown stripes, cold and snowy weather is expected through the holidays and into late January.Beginning in the last week of January, there will be a bit of a warming trend; the first week of February will see a change with possible ice. The cold will continue through March, which is expected to see less-than-normal temperatures; the weeks leading to the spring equinox on March 20, 2011 will see the winter close with lots of snow.
To read Jack’s winter predictions, click to www.woollyworm.com.
Ray’s Expected Snow and Ice Totals
Asheville.......................................11 inchesBanner Elk....................................38 inches
Beech Mountain............................75 inches
Boone............................................32 inches
Hickory..........................................7 inches
Jefferson and West Jefferson.........24 inches
Lenoir............................................7 inches
Morganton.....................................8 inches
Sparta............................................22 inches
Spruce Pine...................................20 inches
Sugar Mountain............................68 inches
Waynesville..................................14 inches
Wilkesboro...................................10 inches
Woolly Worm Jack’s Week-by-Week Predictions
Week Number Body Segment Color Forecast1........................................Black......................................................Cold & Snow
2........................................Black......................................................Cold & Snow
3........................................Black......................................................Cold & Snow
4........................................Black......................................................Cold & Snow
5........................................Dark Brown With a Black Spot.............Possible Ice Storm
6........................................Brown....................................................Cold
7........................................Brown....................................................Cold
8........................................Brown....................................................Cold
9........................................Brown....................................................Cold
10......................................Brown....................................................Cold
11......................................Brown....................................................Cold
12......................................Black......................................................Severe Cold & Snow
This Article is Presented to You By University Nissan of Boone, North Carolina: A New and Used Car Dealer.
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